Employee Protection Through Covid-19

This article references “Agility”, which is a new risk management book on Amazon by a colleague (Professor Tilman). Covid-19 created economic uncertainty. The book covers the importance of making tough risk decisions in an uncertain environment. As part of the CARES Act, the U.S. government has been sending Economic Impact Payment checks to all living… Read More

Navigating the Covid-19 Economic Recovery

By Robert Phelan, CFA, GARP (www.riskdirector.com , 973-2727-3603, bphelan@riskdirector.com) April 13, 2020 The US Economy is too diverse to have one U-shaped, L-shaped, W-shaped, or V-shaped economic recovery.  Each metropolitan area, each industry, and each firm will have a unique curve because of the strength of its business ecosystem.  For example, we see that New… Read More

Covid-19 Impact & PPP Gaps could result in 2.3 Million Small Business Fails

By Robert Phelan, CFA, GARP (www.riskdirector.com , 973-2727-3603, bphelan@riskdirector.com) April 6, 2020 While we are seeing ardent action by health care workers and supply chain employees, there are major gaps in government and bank processes for small business loans. Ben Franklin said, “Those who govern, having much business on their hands, do not generally like… Read More

Covid-19 Recession – Integrating New Risk Driver Data into Risk Models

  By Robert Phelan, CFA, GARP (www.riskdirector.com , 973-2727-3603, bphelan@riskdirector.com) April 4, 2020 A very successful risk leader said, “the data will set you free.”  By that, he meant, you do not need to know fundamental credit analysis because the patterns in historical data using machine learning will reveal most of what is required to… Read More

Track Changes and Mitigate On

By Robert Phelan, CFA, GARP (www.riskdirector.com , 973-2727-3603, bphelan@riskdirector.com) March 17, 2020 In 1939 prior to WW II, the British government created a poster saying, “Keep Calm and Carry on.”  Given the dramatic impact of the Coronavirus, the world cannot carry on as usual.  Recently, I have worked on recession preparation with risk managers in… Read More

Visa buys Plaid from Position of Strength

In game-theory optimization, when a “big stack” makes a bet based on “position,” they have a competitive advantage.  Visa made such a move today with the acquisition of Plaid.  Please see the article on TechCrunch: https://techcrunch.com/2020/01/13/visa-is-acquiring-plaid-for-5-3-billion-2x-its-final-private-valuation/ Today, I will discuss why some risks have increased for Visa.  Visa is undoubtedly one of the largest companies… Read More